GTM Sauce

Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-01-24

How to Succeed with Freemium and Hybrid Monetization — Paul Ganev, Surfline

Surfline VP of Strategy, Business Development and Analytics Paul Ganev on modeling serviceable (not total) addressable market, three drivers of price sensitivity (purchasing power, commitment, value proposition), and Surfline's freemium model: a 1985 phone-line surf report that launched subscriptions in 2001 and now grows without paid acquisition through a habituated free audience, SEO spot pages and word of mouth. Covers balancing conversion against free-user retention, gating features vs metering usage, ads for free users and brand perks for subscribers.

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8 tactics

Surfline · B2C · surf forecast and cam app

Grows with zero paid ads; free-to-paid conversion up a lot over five years

Started free, then moved to paid gradually, leaving a large free audience that checks the product habitually. The free product educates newer surfers on why forecasting (wind, swell) matters; as they become committed and find value, they want the full feature set and subscribe. No paid acquisition: people arrive organically into the free experience. Guest warns it takes time, adds an extra step versus a hard paywall, and needs repeated testing of what is free vs paid.

Workedpaywallretention
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-01-24

Surfline · B2C · surf forecast and cam app

SEO is the biggest channel after word of mouth; no numbers

Every surf report for a location is a page; surfers visiting a new area Google the conditions (e.g. 'surf conditions at El Porto') and land on Surfline's spot pages. An editorial arm also writes about conditions, news and other topics. Word of mouth from the decades-old brand and App Store traffic are the other main sources.

Workedseocontent
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-01-24

Surfline · B2C · surf forecast and cam app

Tested both; guest prefers unlimited use of free features, no numbers

Over three years tested messaging, what sits behind the paywall, and different freemium models: unlimited access to a limited set of features vs a New York Times-style meter where some features lock after about the third use. Prefers not limiting engagement: free users who come in 10-15 times a month form a habit and give more chances to message and educate them about premium.

Workedpaywallretention
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-01-24

Surfline · B2C · surf forecast and cam app

Short spike from early adopters, then a higher baseline conversion

Launch new premium products or add cams in new areas. Early adopters subscribe quickly; once that normalizes, baseline free-to-paid conversion settles higher than before. Goal is slightly better freemium conversion every year without the free audience shrinking.

Workedfeature-developmentpaywall
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-01-24

Surfline · B2C · surf forecast and cam app

Earns from free users; host remembers an ad years later

An in-house ad sales team sells traditional media packages to brands, monetizing the free audience, including unskippable video ads that play before free users can view surf cams.

Workedad-monetization
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-01-24

Surfline · B2C · surf forecast and cam app

Well received; outperforms banner ads for brands, no numbers

No ads behind the paywall. The ad sales team instead sells brands partnership deals where the brand gives subscribers an exclusive discount or early access (e.g. a Surfline-only discount or early access to a new surf park), which Surfline markets natively as a perk to subscribers. Runs alongside traditional media packages for free users; described as a big pivot.

Workedpartnershipsad-monetization
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-01-24

Start top-down with market research for the rough market size, then use on-platform analytics of the large free audience to find which segments matter (geography, demographics, commitment) and cut it down to a serviceable addressable market. Analyze how purchasing power and price sensitivity affect conversion and how that changes as the product improves; quantify the cohort that will never pay via surveys and on-product analysis and feed it into models. A small SAM means weighting investment toward ARPU, adjacent audiences or new geographies. Market research found surfers more affluent than expected.

Unknownmarket-selectionpricing
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-01-24

Many free competitors, few paid ones. Surfline targets highly committed surfers willing to pay; people who surf once a month or less may be better served by free products. Plans a future product aimed at those other audiences.

Unknownpositioning-niche
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-01-24

Numbers mentioned

WhoMetricValueContextWhen
Surflinead spendUSD 0No paid user acquisition; growth is organic into the free tier26:57
Surflineconversion ratepretty big increase
approximate
Free -> paid conversion of the free audience over the past five years37:39
aggregateMost freemium and paid apps the guest has seentime to milestone7 days
approximate
The largest share of conversions happens within the first seven days after download, then a trickle over time34:02
marketGlobal consumer subscription revenue (RevenueCat's 2018 view)market sizeUSD 100,000M
estimate
Cohost's early estimate; about 85% was locked up in four apps24:16
marketShare of subscription revenue held by the four largest apps (RevenueCat's 2018 view)share85%
estimate
24:16
Duolingotime to milestone6–7 years
estimate
Years in market before monetizing in a real way29:59
DuolingovaluationUSD 10,000M
approximate
Just crossed a $10B valuation41:21