Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-11

The Future of Subscription Apps (Why We’re So Excited For 2024)

David Barnard and RevenueCat CEO Jacob Eiting walk through RevenueCat's 2024 State of Subscription Apps report: 2023 as the first 'normal' year after COVID, the ZIRP bubble and ATT; AI apps as the year's breakouts; and the five key takeaways (1.7% median download-to-paid, a power-law spread in new-app revenue, North American LTV 4x global, a 14% drop in 12-month retention, 10%+ of churned monthly subscribers resubscribing), plus 70%+ of trial starts happening in the first 24 hours.

Play the episode

3 tactics

Practitioner pattern · Jacob Eiting (CEO of RevenueCat, whose data and Experiments product are discussed)

Offer the free trial in the first session, not days later

70%+ of trial starts happen in the first 24 hours across categories

Focus onboarding on getting a trial started in the first session, when intent is highest. Don't wait until the user has taken actions over several days before showing the paywall; only a fraction of downloads (~1/5) will ever reach day 4. A buy button on the first screen beats a delayed 'ideal' flow by numbers alone; it can still be done tastefully.

Workedpaywallonboarding

Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-11

Practitioner pattern · Jacob Eiting (CEO of RevenueCat, whose data and Experiments product are discussed)

Wait for 500-1,000 churned users before building win-back campaigns

10%+ of churned monthly subscribers come back within 12 months anyway

Reactivation compounds because the pool of churned subscribers only grows, so it matters more as the app scales (Duolingo and early Twitter lean on it heavily). Early on, focus on the basic funnel, acquisition and retention; don't build CRM/win-back infrastructure for 15 churned users. Wait until there are 500-1,000, or only do the easiest wins.

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Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-11

An indie subscription app · B2C · host's own app

Offer a discount within a day to people who skipped the first paywall

Planned; no results yet

If a new user doesn't subscribe in the first session, show them a discount within the first 24 hours while the app is still fresh in their mind. Idea credited to Jake Mor; David is implementing it in his app.

Unknownpaywallpricing

Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-11

Numbers mentioned

Who	Metric	Value	Context	When
aggregateRevenueCat apps, 2024 State of Subscription Apps report	conversion rate	1.7%	Median download -> paying subscriber within first 30 days; slightly up from the previous report	18:03
aggregateRevenueCat apps, lower quartile	conversion rate	0.6%	Download -> paying subscriber within 30 days, lower quartile	18:03
aggregateRevenueCat apps, upper quartile	conversion rate	4.2%	Download -> paying subscriber within 30 days, upper quartile (~7x the lower quartile)	18:03
aggregateEducation apps in South Korea, RevenueCat data	conversion rate	10% approximate	Download -> paid; 'over 10%', roughly top decile	17:05
aggregateNewly launched apps on RevenueCat, top 5% vs bottom quartile	revenue	200 x/month	Top 5% of new apps earn over 200x the monthly revenue of the bottom quartile one year after launch	22:47
aggregateMedian newly launched app on RevenueCat	revenue	USD 50 approximate	As first stated: median revenue 'after a year' (later corrected to per month by month 12)	24:52
aggregateMedian newly launched app on RevenueCat	revenue	USD 50/month approximate	Median monthly revenue in the 12th month after launch	28:29
aggregateUpper-quartile newly launched app on RevenueCat	revenue	USD 300–400/month approximate	Upper quartile monthly revenue a year after launch, ~10x the median	24:52
personCurtis Herbert, indie developer and past Sub Club guest	revenue	USD 10K/year approximate	First-year app revenue; Jacob says that already puts him in the top 5%	26:36
benchmarkFirst-year revenue signal worth reinvesting in (Jacob's rule of thumb)	revenue	USD 10K/year approximate	If a well-built app isn't naturally making ~$10K in year one, try something more radical rather than fixing metrics	27:08
aggregateNorth America vs global, RevenueCat apps	ltv	USD 0.35per download	Average realized LTV per download 14 days after install, North America; 4x the global average; holds on App Store and Google Play	28:58
aggregateMonthly subscribers across categories, RevenueCat apps	retention	+-14%	Share of monthly subscribers retained after 12 months, change in 2023 vs prior year; hit best and worst performers alike	34:16
aggregateMonthly subscriptions, RevenueCat apps	retention	+-3%	First renewal rate, monthly plans, 2023 vs 2022 (relative)	34:16
aggregateAnnual subscriptions, RevenueCat apps (median)	retention	+-13%	First renewal rate, annual plans, 2023 vs 2022 (relative), as stated by David	34:16
aggregateAnnual subscriptions, RevenueCat apps	retention	28%	First-year renewal rate for annual plans: 30.5% last report -> 28% this report (~8% relative drop per Jacob)	35:26
aggregateChurned monthly subscribers, RevenueCat apps	conversion rate	10% approximate	Churned monthly subscribers who resubscribe within 12 months ('over 10%'); higher in media and entertainment	37:18
aggregateTrial starts across categories, RevenueCat apps	share	70% approximate	Share of trial starts that happen within the first 24 hours after download ('70-plus percent on average')	40:04
benchmarkChurned-user count before win-back infrastructure is worth building (Jacob's rule of thumb)	count	500–1,000 churned usersper month illustrative		38:57