GTM Sauce

Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2025-11-12

Why AI Probably Won’t Kill Your App (But Ignoring It Will) — Eric Crowley, GP Bullhound

David Barnard and Jacob Eiting (RevenueCat) talk with Eric Crowley, GP Bullhound banker who leads its consumer subscription practice, about his annual report. Topics: subscription fatigue being overplayed, why Strava bought Runna (TAM expansion to non-athletes plus a bundle tier), AI as headwind (Google/SEO traffic fracturing) and tailwind (faster testing, moats via hardware and community), every client building web funnels to recover 15-20% margin, category opportunities (Strava for pets, screen time), and the Bending Spoons acquire-and-cut model.

Play the episode

5 tactics

Strava · B2C · social app for athletes

Deal closed; adviser calls it '1+1=6'; no post-deal numbers shared

Strava (app for self-identified athletes, weak at price tiering) bought Runna, which takes people from couch to 5K/10K and turns them into athletes. Rationale per the seller's banker: (1) TAM expansion to non-athletes, (2) Runna adds a second paid tier Strava can offer as a bundle upsell to existing paid Strava users. Runna had integrated with Strava well before the acquisition. Post-deal the apps are kept separate (different use cases: episodic race training vs. ongoing activity posting) rather than merged, with integration decided later.

Unknownexit-maupsell-expansion
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2025-11-12

Runna · B2C · running coach app

Grew fast and was bought by Strava; no growth numbers given

Co-founder Ben was a former coach for triathletes and runners, so knew what people pay for; co-founder Dom's team built an AI-native app that personalizes each run ('you ran a little slower on this block', how to speed up). Timed with the run-club trend among younger people. Integrated with Strava early. Runs strong performance marketing around episodic goals (training for a race).

Workedproduct-activationpositioning-niche
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2025-11-12

Practitioner pattern · Eric Crowley (Investment banker who earns fees selling consumer subscription companies; was sell-side advisor to Runna in the Strava deal.)

Every one of the banker's clients is building or evaluating one; big wins at $100M+ revenue

Over the last two years every GP Bullhound CSS client has built or is actively evaluating web funnels, now that court rulings stop Apple jamming app review over external payment links. Use payment providers such as Paddle, Solidgate or Stripe to handle subscription billing and tax. Worth most at scale ($100-200M revenue means multiple millions of profit); Eiting says roughly past $1M/month revenue. Caveats from hosts: mature subs already pay 15% so the gain is not the full 30%, porting an existing subscriber base takes time, and some apps convert better in-app.

Mixedpayments-checkoutweb-to-app
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2025-11-12

Bending Spoons · B2C · app acquirer and operator

Evernote kept ~2 of hundreds of staff and still rates 4.4 stars; company valued at $11B

Bending Spoons buys apps/subscription businesses (e.g. Evernote, AOL) and within the first month lets go of ~97% of the acquired employees, lifting the product onto its existing ~600-person team rather than shutting it down. Then optimizes pricing and marketing, where it is expert. Hosts add: products with years of locked-in user data (Evernote) tolerate higher prices, and a large user base (AOL's older email users) can be cross-marketed other apps.

Workedportfolioexit-ma
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2025-11-12

Tractive · B2C · GPS dog collar

Guest, a user, calls it phenomenal; no business numbers

Tractive's GPS collar tracks the dog's movement; the app sends a notice when the dog has not been walked for a day ('Time to get up and go') and shows activity levels.

Unknownnotificationsretention
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2025-11-12

Numbers mentioned

WhoMetricValueContextWhen
marketConsumer spending as share of the (US) economyshare70%
approximate
aggregateSubscriptions held per consumercount15–20 subscriptionsper consumer
projection
Crowley's projection for subscriptions per person in 2-3 years (vs ~10 today, 0-2 in 2018)
aggregateSEO traffic of businesses Crowley knows (clients and friends)growth rate+-40–-30%/year
approximate
Year-over-year SEO traffic drop attributed to AI search
benchmarkProfit margin recovered by moving app purchases to web funnelsmargin+15–20%
approximate
Margin regained by bypassing app store fees; host notes it is not the full 30% since mature subs already pay 15%
benchmarkRevenue threshold above which apps should be doing web paymentsrevenueUSD 1M/month
approximate
Eiting: apps past ~$1M/month (maybe less) should be doing some off-App Store payments
marketApple App Store commission on subscriptions after year two, and Google Play on subscriptionscommission rate15%Store fee drops from 30% to 15% in subscription year two on Apple; Google charges 15% on subscriptions from year one
Flo Healthgrowth ratedouble the size
approximate
Flo had doubled in size by the time of GP Bullhound's deal, despite fears Apple's cycle tracking would crush it
Bending SpoonsvaluationUSD 11,000M
approximate
Bending Spoonsshare97%
approximate
Share of an acquired company's employees let go within the first month
Bending Spoonsteam size600 people
approximate
Core team that absorbs each acquired business
Evernoteteam size2 people
estimate
Evernote employees Crowley believes Bending Spoons kept, from hundreds before the acquisition
Evernoterating4.4 starsApp Store rating after the Bending Spoons takeover and layoffs
AOLrank8
estimate
Email clients worldwide (rough)
OpalpriceUSD 120–130/year
estimate
LadderpriceUSD 30/month
approximate
Monthly plan; host stays on it despite the ~$130 annual plan being cheaper
LadderpriceUSD 130/year
approximate
Annual plan
benchmarkA 'great' independent consumer app business that coexists with big-platform competitionrevenueUSD 10M/year
illustrative
Paired with ~$3M/year cash to the owner