Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2025-11-12
Why AI Probably Won’t Kill Your App (But Ignoring It Will) — Eric Crowley, GP Bullhound
David Barnard and Jacob Eiting (RevenueCat) talk with Eric Crowley, GP Bullhound banker who leads its consumer subscription practice, about his annual report. Topics: subscription fatigue being overplayed, why Strava bought Runna (TAM expansion to non-athletes plus a bundle tier), AI as headwind (Google/SEO traffic fracturing) and tailwind (faster testing, moats via hardware and community), every client building web funnels to recover 15-20% margin, category opportunities (Strava for pets, screen time), and the Bending Spoons acquire-and-cut model.
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Numbers mentioned
| Who | Metric | Value | Context | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| marketConsumer spending as share of the (US) economy | share | 70% approximate | ||
| aggregateSubscriptions held per consumer | count | 15–20 subscriptionsper consumer projection | Crowley's projection for subscriptions per person in 2-3 years (vs ~10 today, 0-2 in 2018) | |
| aggregateSEO traffic of businesses Crowley knows (clients and friends) | growth rate | +-40–-30%/year approximate | Year-over-year SEO traffic drop attributed to AI search | |
| benchmarkProfit margin recovered by moving app purchases to web funnels | margin | +15–20% approximate | Margin regained by bypassing app store fees; host notes it is not the full 30% since mature subs already pay 15% | |
| benchmarkRevenue threshold above which apps should be doing web payments | revenue | USD 1M/month approximate | Eiting: apps past ~$1M/month (maybe less) should be doing some off-App Store payments | |
| marketApple App Store commission on subscriptions after year two, and Google Play on subscriptions | commission rate | 15% | Store fee drops from 30% to 15% in subscription year two on Apple; Google charges 15% on subscriptions from year one | |
| Flo Health | growth rate | double the size approximate | Flo had doubled in size by the time of GP Bullhound's deal, despite fears Apple's cycle tracking would crush it | |
| Bending Spoons | valuation | USD 11,000M approximate | ||
| Bending Spoons | share | 97% approximate | Share of an acquired company's employees let go within the first month | |
| Bending Spoons | team size | 600 people approximate | Core team that absorbs each acquired business | |
| Evernote | team size | 2 people estimate | Evernote employees Crowley believes Bending Spoons kept, from hundreds before the acquisition | |
| Evernote | rating | 4.4 stars | App Store rating after the Bending Spoons takeover and layoffs | |
| AOL | rank | 8 estimate | Email clients worldwide (rough) | |
| Opal | price | USD 120–130/year estimate | ||
| Ladder | price | USD 30/month approximate | Monthly plan; host stays on it despite the ~$130 annual plan being cheaper | |
| Ladder | price | USD 130/year approximate | Annual plan | |
| benchmarkA 'great' independent consumer app business that coexists with big-platform competition | revenue | USD 10M/year illustrative | Paired with ~$3M/year cash to the owner |