GTM Sauce

LinkedIn · professional social network

Judge tests on 5-year modeled revenue, not just first-year bookings

No numbers; they turn down revenue that would hurt the funnel long term

Unknownexperimentationanalytics-attribution

What they did

North star is long-term revenue. Every ramp/initiative is measured on one-year bookings, then one-year revenue is modeled; for experiments whose effect changes over time (e.g. pricing) revenue is modeled on a five-year horizon and the decision is made on the five-year view. Supporting metrics: members acquired, trial-to-paid and paid retention, and 'Premium sessions' (sessions where a Premium member uses a Premium feature). Revenue that would squeeze the funnel is deliberately foregone.
Stage
scale

In their words

Value-Driven Growth: LinkedIn's Billion-Dollar Subscription Strategy — Ora Levit, LinkedIn

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David BarnardWow. That's incredible. And how does that value-driven growth approach play into the metrics you track and north star metrics and how you think about what you look at day in, day out as you judge how the business is moving?

Ora LevitYeah. So we have a series of different metrics. We look at how many members we acquire, how well they retain with the subscription between trial and paid, but also throughout the duration of their paid subscription. We look at what we call a Premium session, which is a session in which a Premium member interacts with a Premium feature and we want more essentially Premium members to come more frequently, interact more, and for us, it's a sign of value that they're arriving for the product, which is a sign that they'll continue staying us for the long term.

Ora LevitBut overall, we optimize as a true north of the business for long-term revenue and I say long-term revenue, not short-term revenue because there's a lot of revenue we forego and don't want to take because we believe it'll squeeze the funnel in the way that we are not interested in. And so we always optimize for long-term longevity and I would believe that members [inaudible 00:08:10]. If we would deliver value, they would buy the product, and if …

David BarnardAre there specific ways you measure that long-term revenue? Do you have a predictive LTV model or how do you actually measure that?

Ora LevitYeah, we do. We measure all ramps that we do, all initiatives by analyze bookings, which is one year booking and then we model our one-year revenue and then we model revenue for experiments that we believe would change over time such as pricing experiments and others on a five-year horizon. And so we plot how that would look over time because those outcomes might change and make decision based on the five-year view and not the one-year view.

Jacob EitingThat makes sense. I was thinking just, I guess from a premium perspective on LinkedIn, your retention may be varying, but the underlying user retention of LinkedIn I imagine extremely high that I can't think of why somebody would stop being a user completely. They might go dormant for a while if they're not thinking about it, but from a premium perspective, I would think even that. Once somebody uses some of the premium features, they probably …

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Tags: long-term-revenue, north-star, ltv-model, pricing-tests