GTM Sauce

Yousician · B2C · music learning app

Use monthly-plan renewals to set a warning threshold for yearly-plan test winners

Unknownexperimentationanalytics-attribution

What they did

When most test users buy a 12-month plan, don't wait a year: when the test result lands, model scenarios of renewal rates (e.g. 10% lower or 5% higher) for each plan, and watch how the 1-month plan renews as a proxy. Set a threshold (e.g. if it drops below 10) that signals the 'winner' is actually the loser.

In their words

Stop Celebrating Conversion Wins Before Checking Renewals – Sara Grana, Yousician

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Sara Grana… like an immediate effect that you can see. And then always after some months, recheck the cohort. What has happened with these people? Sometimes it's a bit frustrating because you have the majority of users buying a 12-month subscription, so you won't see it until later on. But maybe there's something that you can do if you see that the one month behaving in a particular way, maybe you can assume that the same would happen for the 12 months.

Sara GranaYou can also look when you have the result, make some scenarios of renewal rates of those different... If the one month was to renew at this 10% less or 5% more, whatever you want based on the result of your test, what would happen. And then you can know once you have some really easy way to check in a way, in a sense. You keep an eye, okay, if this goes below 10, then I know we are in trouble. I know that probably the winner is actually the loser.

David BarnardAnd this gets back to what we started with was keeping a detailed history. Is that when you do run an experiment, do you set an alarm like three months from now?

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Tags: renewal-scenarios, annual-plan, tripwire