Duolingo · B2C · language learning app
Run 3-6 month holdouts for changes whose effects show up late
New push lifts can turn negative after about 6 weeks
What they did
What happened
In their words
Why Your Free Users Are Your Real Growth Engine – Cem Kansu, Duolingo CPO
Cem KansuSo even though you have a year long holdout, you realize at some point you actually polluted it because you like introduced bugs there. Anyway, so very long holdouts. We are anti just because of a practical perspective.
Cem KansuBut we do way more like three month, six month holdouts on things that we know have different short, or we assume will have short to long term effects that might be different.
Cem KansuOne of those, for example, this is not exactly monetization, but anything that has to do with our leader boards, we try to run long period experiments or long holdouts because on the Duolingo leaderboard set, if you start from the lowest league, it takes you 10 weeks to get to the highest one.
Cem KansuIf we change the dynamics of how the leaderboard works, we might not see the actual result in two weeks. So we let these run for longer. Another one is push notification experiments where every, of course, new push notification you introduce has amazing returns because it has amazing novelty.
Cem KansuBut then if you wait out six weeks, sometimes it doesn't just come back to neutral, it actually turns negative because you're sending too many push notifications that turns people off. So some stuff that we assume, not just monetization, might have longer term adverse effects, we run long holdouts or just run a long experiment.
David BarnardThe way Duolingo test things is fast. We could talk hours just on that, but I did want to get back to the monetization journey. So at what point did it become clear that you needed to introduce a subscription?
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- Use the end-of-lesson ad slot to advertise your own paid planGuest says house ads beat programmatic ads; no numbers
- Sell a one-time ad-free month at $3, $5 or $10 to test demandUptake far above expectations; led to the subscription
- Launch a plan with no ads, offline use, and 'support our mission'About half of early buyers paid to support the app; started a run rate
- Offer a free trial even though the app is already freeOne of the biggest unlocks; guest had expected it to flop
- Tell users on the paywall you'll remind them on day 5 of a 7-day trialWon A/B tests by easing fear of subscription traps
- Change the buy button to say 'Try for $0.00'Beat 'Try for free' on both trial starts and trial-to-paid
- Give subscribers unlimited hearts so mistakes never stop their lessonsBig turning point: raised subscription conversion and retention
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- Add new subjects inside the main app instead of launching new appsSeparate apps were 'hard mode'; in-app works better, but many users still don't know
- Offer live human tutors on demand in a higher-priced planFailed: users joined, panicked and left; later replaced by AI video call
Tags: holdouts, long-term-effects, push-novelty