GTM Sauce

Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-20

Lessons from a Lackluster Launch — David Barnard, Weather Up

Guest host Charlie Chapman and RevenueCat CEO Jacob Eiting quiz David Barnard on the weak Weather Up 3.0 launch: four years of holding features for one big splash, a video-led press pitch undercut by Apple's DMA news on launch day, a $40/year price with no launch sale, and his first A/B test (annual vs monthly pre-selected), where the monthly default converted ~10% more but realized LTV was 60% lower. Also covers his mirror app's ASO, a timer app IAP bundle, and plans to relaunch with a sale.

Play the episode

15 tactics

Weather Up · B2C · weather app with widgets

Covered by TechCrunch, 9to5Mac, MacRumors and BGR, even by writers who rarely cover apps

Made a video demonstrating the new interactive widgets, originally for the paywall; it turned out well enough to become the press pitch. Sent it as a short Twitter DM ('Hey, I'm working on some really cool interactivity for widgets and weather') instead of a long email, to contacts and to journalists he did not know. Only pitch when the update is genuinely interesting enough to write about; don't send minor point releases. Kept a per-release press page with the embargo date/time.

Workedpr-launch
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-20

Weather Up · B2C · weather app with widgets

Downloads fell to ~15 a day during the 4-year wait; guest calls it a big regret

From 2019 held a finished Apple Watch app, then home screen widgets, then waited to add interactive widgets, each time deciding the feature was no longer novel enough to get press and Apple attention on its own. Shipped everything together as Weather Up 3.0 in early 2024.

Failedpr-launchfeature-development
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-20

Weather Up · B2C · weather app with widgets

Landed an hour before Apple's DMA news; fewer articles, no social buzz, no Apple feature

Scheduled the launch and posted the date/time as the embargo on the release's press page, squeezing it in ahead of the Apple Vision Pro launch. Apple announced its DMA compliance the same hour; some outlets published early, 9to5Mac waited a day, others skipped it. In hindsight: avoid windows when the App Store editorial team is busy and wait a month.

Failedpr-launch
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-20

Weather Up · B2C · weather app with widgets

Close to 2,000 subscribers, but press readers balked at $40 next to a $30 competitor

Single tier at $4/month or $40/year (annual only ~17% off, to keep monthly revenue for monthly API costs). Price was set from his own view of the product's value and the cost of serving multi-source widgets that refresh in the background, not from customers' perceived value or competitor prices. No discount at launch, and most articles listed the $40 price.

Mixedpricing
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-20

Weather Up · B2C · weather app with widgets

Build one or two features interesting enough for some attention, bundle them into a small relaunch (many people will see the app for the first time), and put the subscription on sale. Then keep shipping frequently and experiment with pricing and win-back offers.

Unknownpr-launchpricing
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-20

Weather Up · B2C · weather app with widgets

Monthly default got ~10% more subscribers but 60% lower revenue per user in month one

A/B test (50/50) with RevenueCat Experiments scheduled to start at 12:01 AM on launch day: arm A pre-selected the $40/year plan, arm B the $4/month plan; nothing else changed. Annual default: ~800 annual, ~400 monthly. Monthly default: ~1,100 monthly, ~100 annual. Judge on realized LTV and revisit after the first annual renewals (day 366).

Workedpaywallexperimentation
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-20

Weather Up · B2C · weather app with widgets

Went better than expected; built in under a day; guest gives no numbers

Built a custom SwiftUI paywall with a video of the interactive widgets behind RevenueCat's paywall footer view, which renders prices and the purchase button and handles purchase logic. Because offerings are remote, later paywall/price experiments needed no code or app update.

Workedpaywall
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-20

Weather Up · B2C · weather app with widgets

Using Apple's newer price points, created a second annual SKU at $39.99 alongside the $40 one in App Store Connect and ran the split in RevenueCat Experiments without touching code, shipping an update or testing in sandbox.

Unknownpricingexperimentation
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-20

A mirror app · B2C · guest's own app

Captured 6-8K of 10-20K daily 'mirror' searches at peak

Full-screen front-camera mirror with zoom, a flash button that adds a white screen border at 100% brightness for low light, and tap-to-freeze to save a photo. Relied on App Store search: people search for 'mirror' to solve an everyday problem. Launch Center Pro similarly ranked top for launcher terms.

Workedasopositioning-niche
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-20

A timer app · B2C · guest's own app

Many bought the $10 bundle; earned $10 a sale instead of $0.99

Relaunched a $0.99 timer app as free with many $0.99 in-app purchases (themes etc.) and an 'ultimate bundle' at about $10 that unlocked everything (around 2010-2011).

Workedpricingupsell-expansion
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-20

Contrast · B2C · indie app studio

Lost money; spent thousands of dollars in the early App Store

Early in the App Store, spent thousands of dollars on paid advertising for paid apps. Has done very little paid advertising since, relying on organic channels.

Failedpaid-social
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-20

Contrast · B2C · indie app studio

Stopped losing money on stalled projects; partners working on the side ship slowly

After two hourly-contractor projects dragged on and never shipped (~$50K lost on each, $100K written off), from 2010-2011 worked with developer partners on a mix of pay and revenue share so they had skin in the game.

Mixedteam-process
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-20

Launch Center Pro · B2C · iPhone launcher app

Up to $60K in a launch week vs hundreds of dollars a day otherwise

For the paid-upfront Launch Center Pro, packaged features into big updates and leveraged them into Apple and press attention, producing revenue spikes. Works for paid apps, not subscriptions.

Workedpr-launch
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-20

Dark Noise · B2C · white noise app

Picked first in an editorial list; 'massively impactful', no numbers; other lists did little

Shipped a quick iOS 17 update adding interactive widgets to Dark Noise; App Store editorial picked it for a widget list, placed first. Other list placements lower down had little effect. Keep taking these swings.

Workedasofeature-development
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-20

RevenueCat · B2B · in-app subscription tools

First Reddit post got some traction; no numbers

Posted on Reddit, then launched a beta, then framed each fundraise as 'RevenueCat's launching out of...' to put a narrative on ongoing building. If a launch goes poorly, launch again: few saw the first one.

Unknownpr-launch
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-20

Numbers mentioned

WhoMetricValueContextWhen
Contrastdownloads10M downloads
approximate
Across 20-something apps since 20082:42
Contrastrevenuemillions of dollars
approximate
2:42
ContrastcostUSD 100K
approximate
Written off on two hourly-contractor projects (~$50K each) that never shipped6:13
David Barnard's timer apppriceUSD 10
approximate
'Ultimate bundle' in-app purchase in the free timer app4:37
marketApp Store searches for 'mirror' at the mirror app's peakcount10K–20K searches/day
estimate
7:34
David Barnard's mirror appdownloads6,000–8,000 downloads/day
approximate
From App Store searches for 'mirror', at peak7:34
Launch Center ProrevenueUSD 60K/week
approximate
Launch-week spike after a big update, vs hundreds of dollars a day otherwise15:20
Weather Updownloads15 downloads/day
approximate
13:17
Weather Upprofitlosing money for about 18 months, funded from personal income
approximate
Weather data API costs exceeded revenue13:17
Weather UppriceUSD 40/yearAnnual plan at launch ($4/month monthly plan); guest calls it probably the highest-priced weather subscription32:18
Weather UppriceUSD 4/month51:53
Carrot WeatherpriceUSD 30/year
approximate
Most premium tier, as cited by reviewers comparing Weather Up41:28
Weather Uppaying users2,000 subscribers
approximate
Subscribers from the 3.0 launch paying $40/year (also described as 'thousands')1:01:24
Weather Upshare33%
approximate
Annual-default arm: share of subscribers who switched to monthly (~800 annual, ~400 monthly)50:41
Weather Upshare10%
approximate
Monthly-default arm: share who switched to annual (~1,100 monthly, ~100 annual); 'less than 10%'51:53
Weather Upconversion rate+4.5%
approximate
Monthly-default vs annual-default arm: more trial starts/conversions; later restated as 10%50:41
Weather Upconversion rate+10%
approximate
Monthly-default arm produced ~10% more subscribers than annual-default arm; statistically significant per guest53:13
Weather Upltv+-60%
approximate
Realized LTV of monthly-default arm vs annual-default arm, under one month after launch (before renewals)47:33
Weather Upchurn30%/month
approximate
Share of launch monthly subscribers who had already turned off auto-renew before the first renewal ('above 30%')49:43
Weather Upviews30K–100K people
estimate
People who saw the launch press coverage headlines57:45