Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-03-20
Lessons from a Lackluster Launch — David Barnard, Weather Up
Guest host Charlie Chapman and RevenueCat CEO Jacob Eiting quiz David Barnard on the weak Weather Up 3.0 launch: four years of holding features for one big splash, a video-led press pitch undercut by Apple's DMA news on launch day, a $40/year price with no launch sale, and his first A/B test (annual vs monthly pre-selected), where the monthly default converted ~10% more but realized LTV was 60% lower. Also covers his mirror app's ASO, a timer app IAP bundle, and plans to relaunch with a sale.
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Numbers mentioned
| Who | Metric | Value | Context | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contrast | downloads | 10M downloads approximate | Across 20-something apps since 2008 | 2:42 |
| Contrast | revenue | millions of dollars approximate | 2:42 | |
| Contrast | cost | USD 100K approximate | Written off on two hourly-contractor projects (~$50K each) that never shipped | 6:13 |
| David Barnard's timer app | price | USD 10 approximate | 'Ultimate bundle' in-app purchase in the free timer app | 4:37 |
| marketApp Store searches for 'mirror' at the mirror app's peak | count | 10K–20K searches/day estimate | 7:34 | |
| David Barnard's mirror app | downloads | 6,000–8,000 downloads/day approximate | From App Store searches for 'mirror', at peak | 7:34 |
| Launch Center Pro | revenue | USD 60K/week approximate | Launch-week spike after a big update, vs hundreds of dollars a day otherwise | 15:20 |
| Weather Up | downloads | 15 downloads/day approximate | 13:17 | |
| Weather Up | profit | losing money for about 18 months, funded from personal income approximate | Weather data API costs exceeded revenue | 13:17 |
| Weather Up | price | USD 40/year | Annual plan at launch ($4/month monthly plan); guest calls it probably the highest-priced weather subscription | 32:18 |
| Weather Up | price | USD 4/month | 51:53 | |
| Carrot Weather | price | USD 30/year approximate | Most premium tier, as cited by reviewers comparing Weather Up | 41:28 |
| Weather Up | paying users | 2,000 subscribers approximate | Subscribers from the 3.0 launch paying $40/year (also described as 'thousands') | 1:01:24 |
| Weather Up | share | 33% approximate | Annual-default arm: share of subscribers who switched to monthly (~800 annual, ~400 monthly) | 50:41 |
| Weather Up | share | 10% approximate | Monthly-default arm: share who switched to annual (~1,100 monthly, ~100 annual); 'less than 10%' | 51:53 |
| Weather Up | conversion rate | +4.5% approximate | Monthly-default vs annual-default arm: more trial starts/conversions; later restated as 10% | 50:41 |
| Weather Up | conversion rate | +10% approximate | Monthly-default arm produced ~10% more subscribers than annual-default arm; statistically significant per guest | 53:13 |
| Weather Up | ltv | +-60% approximate | Realized LTV of monthly-default arm vs annual-default arm, under one month after launch (before renewals) | 47:33 |
| Weather Up | churn | 30%/month approximate | Share of launch monthly subscribers who had already turned off auto-renew before the first renewal ('above 30%') | 49:43 |
| Weather Up | views | 30K–100K people estimate | People who saw the launch press coverage headlines | 57:45 |