GTM Sauce

Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-10-02

The Subscription App Industry Rebound — Eric Crowley, GP Bullhound

David Barnard and Jacob Eiting talk with GP Bullhound banker Eric Crowley about the 2024 rebound in consumer subscription (CSS) deals and valuations, the Rule of 40 and Rule of X, Flo's $200M raise at a $1B+ valuation, how consumer apps reach positive net revenue retention (price increases, family plans, higher tiers, add-ons), Sherlocking by Apple, the DMA and web checkout, IPO vs. private exits and CSS aggregators, and a 'Maslow's hierarchy' framework tying apps to identity and passion.

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12 tactics

Flo · B2C · period and women's health app

60M+ monthly users; thesis behind a $200M raise at a $1B+ valuation

Offer a free period-tracking product to users from their mid-teens and keep serving them free for as long as they need, building a data layer over their whole life (18 to 35-50, into perimenopause and menopause). Add paid modules (e.g. perimenopause, menopause, partner features) inside Flo Premium that users subscribe to when a life stage makes them relevant. Investor thesis: each new module widens the surface where the 60M MAU find a reason to subscribe; capturing 1-3% per module means hundreds of millions in revenue.

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Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-10-02

Flo · B2C · period and women's health app

Set out for $100M; raised $200M at a $1B+ valuation

Flo worked with GP Bullhound to raise a growth round, going out for $100M. Multiple investors competed and the round was doubled to $200M, led by General Atlantic. Pitch centered on the freemium data layer and module expansion thesis.

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Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-10-02

Practitioner pattern · Eric Crowley (M&A and fundraising advisor to CSS companies; GP Bullhound advised Flo, TeamSnap (Mojo) and Nutracheck on deals discussed)

Guest says best-of-breed apps keep users through it; one of the main paths to positive NRR

Once churn has flattened into a stable base of long-term subscribers (2-3+ years), raise prices periodically like Amazon Prime, Netflix and Hulu (roughly every 2 years). Don't sneak it in: send an email with the old and new price (e.g. '$29.99 to $35.99') and list the benefits users are getting for the extra money. A/B test on a slice first and watch retention. Cohost adds: only worth it after you have compounded a sturdy long-term base for a handful of years; expect some users to be upset.

Workedpricingemail
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-10-02

Spotify · B2C · music streaming app

Cited as user expansion from a single acquired customer; no numbers

Launch a family plan: acquire one family member (e.g. the mom), who then adds the dad and kids under a higher-priced family subscription, expanding revenue from one acquired customer.

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Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-10-02

onX launched global maps as a higher tier versus the base state-by-state maps, so existing subscribers can upgrade.

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Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-10-02

Quicken · B2C · personal finance software

Guest calls it an easy upgrade for users; no numbers

Quicken added estate planning tools to its financial management subscription: wills, trusts, and a locker to store important documents, sold as an upgrade to existing users.

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Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-10-02

Tinder · B2C · dating app

Cited as extra revenue on top of subscriptions; no numbers

Tinder sells baskets of super likes that are not part of the subscription but enhance use; Duolingo sells one-time items such as streak recovery. Guest's caveat: keep the subscription as the main focus and only add one-offs if they don't distract from it.

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Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-10-02

AllTrails · B2C · hiking trails app

Guest says Apple may take a few % of free users but not payers

When Apple added hiking maps to iOS 18 Maps, the answer is to keep shipping depth the platform won't build: more photos, more reviews, and now social features, aiming to stay '10x better' than the broad, shallow OS feature.

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Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-10-02

Nutracheck · B2C · calorie counting app

Guest calls it a home run deal that answered the buyer's CAC questions

GP Bullhound sold Nutracheck to Immediate Media, a content company with an ad-driven model and many MAUs that wanted a subscription product. Pitch: the buyer's audience solves the app's customer acquisition cost, and the app gives the publisher a subscription offering.

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Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-10-02

Tractive added GPS to dog collars, then leaderboards and other features so owners can see how much their dog walked versus other dogs of the same breed, nudging them to walk more.

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Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-10-02

Fi · B2C · GPS dog collar

Host found the offer compelling; no numbers

Fi, a GPS dog collar with step tracking and leaderboards, shows an in-app ad for a pet supplement ('add this to your pet's dog food to keep them healthy, make their coat shinier') to existing collar owners, expanding into the wider pet spending market.

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Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-10-02

Practitioner pattern · Eric Crowley (M&A and fundraising advisor to CSS companies; GP Bullhound advised Flo, TeamSnap (Mojo) and Nutracheck on deals discussed)

Every client of the guest is exploring it; tools charge ~5-7% vs 30%

Offer a web subscription path using third-party tooling that handles user management, taxes in every jurisdiction and payments at roughly 5-7% commission instead of the App Store's 30%. Give consumers a 10-20% discount to sign up on the web and return to the app. Guest says every one of his clients is looking at this; don't assume the savings simply flow to profit.

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Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-10-02

Numbers mentioned

WhoMetricValueContextWhen
Flofunding raisedUSD 200M/one-timeRound led by General Atlantic11:20
FlovaluationUSD 1,000M
approximate
11:20
Flofunding raisedUSD 100M/one-time
goal
Initial raise target before a competitive process doubled it11:20
Flousers60M users/month
approximate
Monthly active users; a fraction are paid subscribers11:56
Floshare50%
approximate
Share of users acquired organically (word of mouth, App Store rankings)15:44
benchmarkRule of 40: year-over-year revenue growth % plus EBITDA or cash flow margin % should be at least 40growth rate40%Growth rate + EBITDA margin, e.g. 30% growth + 10% margin = 40; higher is better5:54
marketPublic software companies: how well Rule of X (2x growth + margin) explains share price vs. Rule of 40share60–70%
approximate
Correlation of Rule of X score with stock price/revenue multiple6:26
benchmarkRevenue below which a SaaS company should not worry about the Rule of 40revenueUSD 5M–10M/year
estimate
8:46
benchmarkCommission for third-party web subscription tooling (tax, payments, user management) vs. the App Store feecommission rate5–7%
estimate
34:07
benchmarkDiscount consumers will accept to sign up on the web and return to the appprice10–20%
projection
Discount off in-app price34:07
benchmarkAnnual revenue at which a predictable consumer subscription company becomes a credible IPO candidaterevenueUSD 400M–500M/year
estimate
40:56
Stravarevenuea couple hundred million
estimate
41:36
marketBusinesses in the App Store generating moneycount5M businesses
estimate
Guest's rough figure; most are small45:08
aggregateTypical targets of CSS aggregators: profitable apps bought on EBITDA multiplesrevenueUSD 5M–15M/year
approximate
45:08
aggregateFounder-owned 'cash cow' app businesses the guest knows that pay owners dividends instead of sellingprofitUSD 3M–4M/year
approximate
EBITDA49:08
marketConsumer spending as a share of US GDPshare70%
approximate
52:19
BrightCanarypriceUSD 6–10/month
estimate
Host's recollection of what he pays55:04