Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2024-10-02
The Subscription App Industry Rebound — Eric Crowley, GP Bullhound
David Barnard and Jacob Eiting talk with GP Bullhound banker Eric Crowley about the 2024 rebound in consumer subscription (CSS) deals and valuations, the Rule of 40 and Rule of X, Flo's $200M raise at a $1B+ valuation, how consumer apps reach positive net revenue retention (price increases, family plans, higher tiers, add-ons), Sherlocking by Apple, the DMA and web checkout, IPO vs. private exits and CSS aggregators, and a 'Maslow's hierarchy' framework tying apps to identity and passion.
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Numbers mentioned
| Who | Metric | Value | Context | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flo | funding raised | USD 200M/one-time | Round led by General Atlantic | 11:20 |
| Flo | valuation | USD 1,000M approximate | 11:20 | |
| Flo | funding raised | USD 100M/one-time goal | Initial raise target before a competitive process doubled it | 11:20 |
| Flo | users | 60M users/month approximate | Monthly active users; a fraction are paid subscribers | 11:56 |
| Flo | share | 50% approximate | Share of users acquired organically (word of mouth, App Store rankings) | 15:44 |
| benchmarkRule of 40: year-over-year revenue growth % plus EBITDA or cash flow margin % should be at least 40 | growth rate | 40% | Growth rate + EBITDA margin, e.g. 30% growth + 10% margin = 40; higher is better | 5:54 |
| marketPublic software companies: how well Rule of X (2x growth + margin) explains share price vs. Rule of 40 | share | 60–70% approximate | Correlation of Rule of X score with stock price/revenue multiple | 6:26 |
| benchmarkRevenue below which a SaaS company should not worry about the Rule of 40 | revenue | USD 5M–10M/year estimate | 8:46 | |
| benchmarkCommission for third-party web subscription tooling (tax, payments, user management) vs. the App Store fee | commission rate | 5–7% estimate | 34:07 | |
| benchmarkDiscount consumers will accept to sign up on the web and return to the app | price | 10–20% projection | Discount off in-app price | 34:07 |
| benchmarkAnnual revenue at which a predictable consumer subscription company becomes a credible IPO candidate | revenue | USD 400M–500M/year estimate | 40:56 | |
| Strava | revenue | a couple hundred million estimate | 41:36 | |
| marketBusinesses in the App Store generating money | count | 5M businesses estimate | Guest's rough figure; most are small | 45:08 |
| aggregateTypical targets of CSS aggregators: profitable apps bought on EBITDA multiples | revenue | USD 5M–15M/year approximate | 45:08 | |
| aggregateFounder-owned 'cash cow' app businesses the guest knows that pay owners dividends instead of selling | profit | USD 3M–4M/year approximate | EBITDA | 49:08 |
| marketConsumer spending as a share of US GDP | share | 70% approximate | 52:19 | |
| BrightCanary | price | USD 6–10/month estimate | Host's recollection of what he pays | 55:04 |