Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2026-03-06
The 2026 State of Subscription Apps Report
David Barnard and Jacob Eiting (RevenueCat) walk through RevenueCat's 2026 State of Subscription Apps report: new subscription app launches up 7X since 2022 (Appfigures), iOS 77% of launches, 69% of revenue from pre-2020 apps, power-law MRR growth (top 10% +306%, median +5.3%), hard paywalls converting ~5X freemium with similar retention, 55% of 3-day trial cancellations on day zero, Google Play involuntary churn, AI apps earning 41% more per payer but churning faster, longer trials converting better (likely selection bias), and the annual-plan cancellation timeline.
Play the episode4 tactics
Numbers mentioned
| Who | Metric | Value | Context | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| marketNew subscription apps launched per month, whole app market (Appfigures data) | count | 2,000 apps/month approximate | New subscription apps launched in January 2022 | |
| marketNew subscription apps launched per month, whole app market (Appfigures data) | count | 14.7K apps/month approximate | New subscription apps launched in January 2026 (7X vs Jan 2022; most growth in the last six months) | |
| marketGrowth in monthly new subscription app launches, Jan 2022 to Jan 2026 (Appfigures) | growth rate | +7 x approximate | Multiple of new subscription apps per month vs January 2022 | |
| RevenueCat | new customers | +7 x/month approximate | RevenueCat new users per month grew ~7X with no increase in support tickets (new devs set up via AI agents) | |
| marketShare of new subscription app launches that are iOS (Appfigures) | share | 77% | iOS share of all new subscription app launches, up from 67% in 2023 | |
| marketShare of 2025 app store revenue by app release cohort (Appfigures) | share | 69%/year | Share of 2025 app store revenue from apps released before 2020 | |
| marketShare of 2025 app store revenue by app release cohort (Appfigures) | share | 9%/year | Share of 2025 revenue from apps released 2020-2021 | |
| marketShare of 2025 app store revenue by app release cohort (Appfigures) | share | 14%/year | Share of 2025 revenue from apps released 2022-2023 (hosts attribute the bump to ChatGPT and other foundation-model apps) | |
| aggregateYear-over-year MRR growth, top 10% of apps in RevenueCat dataset | growth rate | +306%/year | YoY MRR growth, top decile of apps | |
| aggregateYear-over-year MRR growth, median app in RevenueCat dataset | growth rate | +5.3%/year | YoY MRR growth, median app (roughly GDP/inflation level) | |
| aggregateYear-over-year MRR growth, bottom-performing apps in RevenueCat dataset | growth rate | negative (lost MRR) | Bottom of the distribution shrank; many are likely abandoned apps | |
| aggregateYear-over-year MRR growth, top 25% of apps in RevenueCat dataset | growth rate | +80%/year | YoY MRR growth, top quartile of apps | |
| aggregateMedian annual-plan year-one retention across subscription apps | retention | 27%/year approximate | Median annual retention (host: 'near 30%... I think it's 27') | |
| Cursor | revenue | +USD 1,000M approximate | Cursor announced adding $1B in revenue in a month or a quarter (speaker unsure which), ~2 years after founding | |
| Claude | revenue | hundreds of thousands of dollars approximate | Claude app daily revenue before its surge (Appfigures data) | |
| Claude | revenue | USD 1M/day approximate | Claude app daily revenue reached almost $1M/day (Appfigures data) | |
| aggregateDownload-to-paid conversion by day 35, apps with hard paywalls (RevenueCat dataset) | conversion rate | 10.7% | Download -> paid by day 35, hard paywall apps | |
| aggregateDownload-to-paid conversion by day 35, freemium apps (RevenueCat dataset) | conversion rate | 2.1% | Download -> paid by day 35, freemium apps | |
| Mojo | share | 50% approximate | Share of Mojo revenue that does not come on the first day (more than 50%), due to a generous free tier | |
| aggregateShare of conversions happening on day zero for most apps (RevenueCat dataset) | share | 80% approximate | Share of conversions on day zero (first open) for most apps | |
| benchmarkDay-one retention considered great | retention | 50% illustrative | D1 retention of 50% would be great | |
| aggregateYear-one retention, P90 freemium apps (RevenueCat dataset) | retention | 58% | Year-one retention, 90th percentile, freemium | |
| aggregateYear-one retention, P90 hard paywall apps (RevenueCat dataset) | retention | 54% | Year-one retention, 90th percentile, hard paywall | |
| aggregateYear-one retention, median freemium apps (RevenueCat dataset) | retention | 27.7% | Year-one retention, median, freemium | |
| aggregateYear-one retention, median hard paywall apps (RevenueCat dataset) | retention | 26.8% | Year-one retention, median, hard paywall (host says 'yearly' but means hard paywall) | |
| aggregateTiming of 3-day free trial cancellations (RevenueCat dataset) | share | 55% | Share of all 3-day trial cancellations that happen on day zero; rising trend | |
| aggregateGoogle Play subscription cancellations that are involuntary billing failures (RevenueCat dataset) | share | nearly a third approximate | Share of Google Play subscription cancellations caused by involuntary billing failures; more than double iOS | |
| aggregateAndroid share of revenue across RevenueCat customers | share | 10–15% estimate | Android revenue share; rest is iOS and web (CEO's rough guess) | |
| aggregateGoogle Play cancellation survey reasons, cost + not enough usage combined (RevenueCat dataset) | share | 70% approximate | Share of Google Play cancellations citing cost or not enough usage (value proposition); technical issues and 'found a better app' are small | |
| aggregateAI-powered apps vs non-AI apps, revenue per payer (RevenueCat dataset) | arpu | +41% | AI apps earn 41% more revenue per payer than non-AI apps | |
| aggregateAI-powered apps vs non-AI apps, churn speed (RevenueCat dataset) | churn | +30% | AI apps churn 30% faster than non-AI apps | |
| aggregateYear-one retention, AI-powered apps (RevenueCat dataset) | retention | 21% | Year-one retention, AI apps | |
| aggregateYear-one retention, non-AI apps (RevenueCat dataset) | retention | 31% | Year-one retention, non-AI apps | |
| aggregateTrial-to-paid conversion, trials of 17+ days (RevenueCat dataset) | conversion rate | 42.5% | Trial -> paid, trials of 17 days or longer (70% better than short trials; likely selection bias) | |
| aggregateTrial-to-paid conversion, short trials (RevenueCat dataset) | conversion rate | 25.5% | Trial -> paid, short trials; more apps shifted to 3-day trials year over year | |
| aggregateWhen churning annual subscribers turn off auto-renew, all categories (RevenueCat dataset) | share | 34% | Share of eventual annual churners who cancel in the first month | |
| aggregateWhen churning annual subscribers turn off auto-renew, all categories (RevenueCat dataset) | share | 4.7% | Share of eventual annual churners who cancel in month 11 | |
| aggregateWhen churning annual subscribers turn off auto-renew, all categories (RevenueCat dataset) | share | 11% | Share of eventual annual churners who cancel in month 12, right before renewal |