The Superwall Podcast · 2026-07-10
Josh Peleg - $172M of App Building Advice in 50 Minutes
Josh Peleg (VP of M&A at BlueThrone, ex-Plarium) walks through six rules for a nine-figure app exit: own a narrowly defined category (Flo, Runna), build retentive 'locals' (year-one resubscribe 50% amazing), earn organic installs (50%+ great), charge premium prices now that ChatGPT reset the anchor to $20/month (Waking Up: ~25K downloads/month, >$1M/month revenue), build the story for the right buyer type (Strava buying Runna as funnel), and sell before you need to (MyFitnessPal resold for $100M+ less). Also BlueThrone's acquisition thesis and price-testing advice.
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Numbers mentioned
| Subject | Metric | Value | Quote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raid: Shadow Legends | revenue 'a billion-plus in revenue for many, many years' | USD 1,000M/year approximate | “Raid was doing a billion-plus in revenue for many, many years, it still is.” |
| Raid: Shadow Legends | revenue Description calls Raid a '$3B+' franchise; body says $1B+ per year | USD 3,000M approximate | “Raid was doing a billion-plus in revenue for many, many years, it still is.” |
| BlueThrone | team size | 70 people | “So we're 70 people right now, 7-0, and that includes infrastructure, R&D, QA, um distribution, growth, monetization, ad monetization, CFO functions, HR functions.” |
| BlueThrone | revenue Acquisition target range: annual revenue of apps BlueThrone buys | USD 400K–15M/year approximate | “we target any apps doing around 400k a year minimum, all the way up to like 15 million a year.” |
| personJosh Peleg, founder conversations as BlueThrone M&A lead | activity volume | 4–5 founder conversations/day approximate | “I'm speaking to maybe four or five founders a day” |
| benchmarkBest-case exit multiple for a fast-growing, profitable consumer app | valuation Best case, valued on future growth; requires strong growth and profitability | 6 x revenue run rate approximate | “around the 17 million ARR mark, you can start to think about the best-case scenario valuation, which would be really, in the best, best cases, 6x on run rate.” |
| benchmarkEBITDA margin that counts as strong profitability for a nine-figure exit | margin EBITDA margin | 30–50% approximate | “we're talking about 30, 40, 50% EBITDA margin, something really, really strong.” |
| benchmarkARR needed for a $100M+ valuation when valued on growth (run rate) | arr | USD 17M approximate | “really around the 17 million ARR mark, you can start to think about the best-case scenario valuation” |
| benchmarkARR needed for a $100M+ valuation when valued on last-12-months revenue (slower growth) | arr | USD 30M–33M approximate | “then the kind of numbers you need to be hitting are around 30, 33 million in ARR to get these really outsized returns.” |
| benchmarkYear-one subscriber renewal (resubscribe) rate in consumer apps; not for dating apps | retention Year-one resubscribe: 50% amazing, 40% good, 30% okay, 20% bad | 50% approximate | “50% retention of year one is amazing, 40 is good, 30 is okay, 20 is is bad, as a very like general rule of thumb.” |
| benchmarkShare of installs that are organic, as seen by an acquirer | share Organic install share: 50% great, 35-50% good, under 20% not great (UA treadmill) | 50% approximate | “50% is great, 35 to 50 is good, under 20 is not great, and it probably means you're on a bit of a UA treadmill.” |
| marketApps submitted to the App Store, this year vs last year | growth rate | +80%/year approximate | “80% more apps being submitted to the App Store this year than last year.” |
| benchmarkMax annual price consumers would pay for an app before ChatGPT | price | USD 60/year approximate | “before ChatGPT came around, the maximum people were kind of willing to spend on their consumer apps was maybe 60 bucks a year. That was kind of the benchmark.” |
| ChatGPT | price Price that reset consumer app price anchors | USD 20/month approximate | “"Hey, we're going to charge you 20 bucks a month, and you're going to pay it."” |
| benchmarkPayers needed for $30M ARR at $4.99/month | paying users At $4.99/month; vs 125,000 payers at $20/month | 500K payers illustrative | “If you're charging $4.99 a month, you need half a million payers.” |
| benchmarkPayers needed for $30M ARR at $20/month | paying users At $20/month | 125K payers illustrative | “But if you're charging 20 bucks a month, and you have a product where you're able to do that, you only need 125,000 payers.” |
| Waking Up | price Monthly plan; annual is $150 | USD 20/month approximate | “This app charges 20 bucks a month and 150 bucks a year.” |
| Waking Up | price Annual plan; more than double Calm's $70/year | USD 150/year approximate | “Sam Harris's app is charging 150 bucks a year. That's crazy. That's more than, you know, it's more than double what Calm is doing.” |
| Waking Up | downloads Sensor Tower estimate | 25K downloads/month estimate | “this app only gets around 25k downloads a month, according to Sensor Tower, but it's pumping over a million dollars in revenue a month” |
| Waking Up | revenue Over $1M/month, Sensor Tower estimate; ~$40 revenue per monthly download | USD 1M/month estimate | “this app only gets around 25k downloads a month, according to Sensor Tower, but it's pumping over a million dollars in revenue a month” |
| benchmarkMonthly downloads-to-revenue ratio for consumer apps (downloads : USD) | arpu Host: 1:1 is standard, 1:2 or 1:3 is pretty good; Waking Up is ~1:40 | 1–3 USD per download approximate | “Usually, like one to one is like standard. Maybe one to two or one to three is like pretty good. This is like off the charts.” |
| Purpose: Your AI Mentor | downloads Host's research, likely Sensor Tower-type estimate | 20K downloads/month estimate | “20k downloads a month, $200,000 in revenue a month.” |
| Purpose: Your AI Mentor | revenue Host's research estimate | USD 200K/month estimate | “20k downloads a month, $200,000 in revenue a month.” |
| Photoroom | arr Read off the guest's slide by the host; priced $15-30/month | USD 50M approximate | “Photoroom is charging 15 to 30 a month, they're at 50 million ARR” |
| Photoroom | price | USD 15–30/month approximate | “Photoroom is charging 15 to 30 a month, they're at 50 million ARR” |
| Calm | price | USD 70/year approximate | “and then Calm is $70 a year.” |
| Flo | users 70M+ monthly active users at time of the General Atlantic round | 70M users/month approximate | “At that point, with their, you know, 70 million-plus monthly active users, they could become the first women's health unicorn” |
| Flo | funding raised 200M+ from General Atlantic | USD 200M/one-time approximate | “raise their 200 million-plus from from General Atlantic at the 1 billion-plus valuation” |
| Flo | valuation $1B+; first women's health unicorn | USD 1,000M approximate | “raise their 200 million-plus from from General Atlantic at the 1 billion-plus valuation” |
| Flo | activity volume Over 100 experiments a month, from a graph the guest recalls | 100 experiments/month approximate | “I remember seeing a graph of like the Flo team, and they were running like over 100 experiments a month.” |
| MyFitnessPal | exit price Under Armour acquisition | USD 475M | “In 2015, Under Armour paid 475 million for it, and they're paying for the future growth, that's why they're paying a premium.” |
| MyFitnessPal | exit price Francisco Partners paid over $100M less than Under Armour's 2015 price | +USD -100M approximate | “when that second deal came around in 2020, and Francisco Partners bought MyFitnessPal, they paid over 100 million less for it” |
| benchmarkShare of consumer companies that reach an IPO | share | 2% approximate | “only 2% of consumer companies um actually make it that far” |
| benchmarkShare of a price test's audience to expose to a higher price | share | 10–20% approximate | “don't test it on your whole audience, section it, so you test it on 10, 15, 20% of the audience.” |