Mosaic Group · B2C · app portfolio company
Use early subscription cancellations to predict who will churn
Didn't work: few cancel early; most cancel near the renewal reminder
No effectanalytics-attributionretention
What they did
Tested early cancellation (turning off auto-renew) as a predictor of churn for LTV modeling. Trial-to-paid conversion and usage of the one key value action proved better leading indicators.
What happened
Not a valuable data point: only a fraction of users cancel early; most cancel around renewal when reminder emails arrive.
- Effort
- 'A lot of testing around it'
In their words
Sub Club by RevenueCat · Why Most Apps Hit a Revenue Ceiling (and How to Plan for It) — Patrick Falzon, The App Shop“We did not see a lot of success using early cancellation rates as a predictor of churn. We just didn't. We did a lot of testing around it. Only a fraction of users actually cancel early.”
“Also, if you have a free trial, trial-to-paid conversion is typically going to be a leading indicator of retention on the other side.”
Related topics
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