GTM Sauce

Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2023-01-17

How’s Your App Really Doing? The State of Subscription Apps 2023

David Barnard and Jacob Eiting walk through RevenueCat's first State of Subscription Apps report (22,000+ apps, $4B+ tracked revenue): why quartiles beat averages, median download-to-trial 3.7% and trial-to-paid 38%, retention curves by plan length (weekly 3%, monthly 11%, annual 25% after a year), trial-length conversion (3-day worst, 7/14/30-day about equal), and why a bottom-quartile metric can be fine depending on business model, stage and traffic source (AllTrails, Pok Pok, None to Run examples).

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5 tactics

Pok Pok · B2C · kids' play app

Double the monthly subscription price
More than doubled revenue, but the higher-price cohort churned much faster

Pricing experiment on a kids' app that doubled the price of the monthly subscription. Because it was a monthly plan, churn data came back quickly.

Mixedpricing
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2023-01-17

None to Run · B2C · beginner running app

Write one blog post on why Couch to 5K injures beginners, and share it in your Facebook group
Launch cohort: 20%+ trial starts, ~90% trial-to-paid; drifted down as store traffic grew

Most traffic comes from a single blog post arguing Couch to 5K can cause injuries and isn't a good program for beginning runners, circulated in the founders' Facebook group. At launch, an email blast plus the Facebook group, which had been asking for the app, delivered pent-up demand. Readers go through the whole post on a better way to start running, then download the app.

Workedcontentcommunity
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2023-01-17

AllTrails · B2C · hiking trail app

Rank first in Google for every trail and keep the subscription cheap
Host believes very low acquisition cost and strong retention; no numbers

Pages for trails worldwide rank as the first search result, so much of the traffic is organic. Annual subscription priced around $30/year with frequent promotions and a generous free tier. Host speculates this yields low blended CAC and industry-leading retention despite a likely bottom-quartile trial start rate.

Unknownseopricing
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2023-01-17

Launch Center Pro · B2C · iPhone shortcut launcher app

Skip the paywall during onboarding, then block users once they're using the app
Host calls it a mistake: a surprise block is 'a terrible experience'

The host's own apps didn't show a paywall in onboarding; users onboarded, got excited using the app, and then hit a paywall block. Jacob Eiting added a lesson from his Elevate boss Jesse Pickard: ~97% of users never pay, so showing them a paywall early is fine and makes the commerce clear.

Failedpaywallonboarding
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2023-01-17

RevenueCat · B2B · subscription tools for app makers

Publish a yearly benchmark report built from your customers' anonymized data

Built from on-device receipt data across 22,000+ apps. Waited years until the customer base was representative of the App Store and the analysis was rigorous (data scientist plus business analyst). Everything averaged above a minimum threshold, apps with tiny data sets excluded, each app weighted equally, no scatterplots, and developers can opt out. Reported as quartiles plus median, not means. Released as a PDF at revenuecat.com/report, with a companion podcast, blog posts and a yearly update planned; readers asked to email feedback.

Unknowncontent
Sub Club by RevenueCat · 2023-01-17

Numbers mentioned

WhoMetricValueContextWhen
RevenueCatpaying users180M subscribers
approximate
Subscribers covered by the report data set (180M+)8:17
RevenueCatcustomers17K developers
approximate
Developers in the report data set (17,000+)8:17
RevenueCatgmvUSD 4,000M
approximate
Revenue tracked across App Store, Play Store, Stripe and Amazon since 2018 ($4B+)8:57
RevenueCatcount22K apps
approximate
Apps tracked in the report data set (22,000+)8:57
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked subscription apps, 2023 reportcount3–14 xHow much better top-quartile apps perform than bottom-quartile apps across metrics33:26
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked subscription apps with trials, medianconversion rate3.7%Download -> trial start, median, apps with trials37:12
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked subscription apps with trials, medianconversion rate38%Trial start -> paid subscriber, median, apps with trials37:12
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked subscription apps with trials, medianconversion rate2%
approximate
Download -> paying customer (combination of trial start and trial conversion)37:43
benchmarkIn-app purchase conversion when IAP launched (~2009), per Jacob Eiting's experienceconversion rate1%
approximate
Download -> purchase; 'single digits' has been the norm since37:43
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, 14-day trial into annual planconversion rate21%Trial -> paid, lower quartile26:34
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, 14-day trial into annual planconversion rate44%Trial -> paid, median27:26
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, 14-day trial into annual planconversion rate61%Trial -> paid, upper quartile28:26
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, 3-day (<=4 day) trialsconversion rate19%Trial -> paid, lower quartile1:08:07
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, 3-day (<=4 day) trialsconversion rate30%Trial -> paid, median (lowest of all trial lengths)1:08:07
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, 3-day (<=4 day) trialsconversion rate47%Trial -> paid, upper quartile1:08:07
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, 7-day (5-9 day) trials, the most common lengthconversion rate28%Trial -> paid, lower quartile1:10:27
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, 7-day (5-9 day) trials, the most common lengthconversion rate45%Trial -> paid, median1:10:27
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, 7-day (5-9 day) trials, the most common lengthconversion rate62%Trial -> paid, upper quartile1:10:27
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, 30-day (17-32 day) trialsconversion rate21%Trial -> paid, lower quartile (widest spread of any trial length)1:14:07
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, 30-day (17-32 day) trialsconversion rate67%Trial -> paid, upper quartile1:14:07
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, 7/14/30-day trialsconversion rate44–45%Trial -> paid medians are 45%, 44% and 45% for 7, 14 and 30-day trials: trial length barely matters beyond 3 days1:12:35
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, weekly subscriptions, medianretention73%Share of weekly subscribers retained at week 1 (55% at week 2, 45% at week 3)45:36
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, weekly subscriptions, medianretention3%Share of weekly subscribers still subscribed after one year45:36
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, monthly subscriptions, medianretention64%Month 1 retention (45% at month 2)45:36
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, monthly subscriptions, medianretention11%Share of monthly subscribers retained after one year (~4x weekly)45:36
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, annual subscriptionsretention25%Annual first renewal rate, median50:07
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, annual subscriptionsretention41%Annual first renewal rate, upper quartile50:07
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, annual subscriptionsretention16%Annual first renewal rate, lower quartile50:07
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, trial strategy mixshare39%Apps with no trial at all (30% mixed trial strategy, 31% pure trial)1:01:05
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, trial strategy mixshare30%Apps with a mixed trial strategy (some products without a trial)1:01:05
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps, trial strategy mixshare31%Apps with a pure trial strategy1:01:05
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps with a pure trial strategyconversion rate2.1%Download -> trial start, lower quartile1:03:46
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps with a pure trial strategyconversion rate4.6%Download -> trial start, median1:03:46
aggregateRevenueCat-tracked apps with a pure trial strategyconversion rate8.7%Download -> trial start, upper quartile; some apps likely exceed 10%1:03:46
Elevateconversion ratearound 10% or above, depending on traffic source
estimate
Download -> trial start at Elevate, per Jacob Eiting, in response to 'people above 10%'1:03:59
None to Runconversion rate20%
approximate
Download -> trial start in the launch cohort from the Facebook group and email blast ('over 20%'); drifted down later1:07:46
None to Runconversion rate90%
approximate
Trial -> paid in the launch cohort of pent-up, high-intent users; drifted down as App Store organics and featuring grew1:08:07
Pok Pokprice+100%Monthly subscription price doubled in a pricing experiment16:32
Pok Pokrevenuemore than double
approximate
Revenue after doubling the monthly price; the higher-price cohort then churned at a much higher rate16:32
AllTrailspriceUSD 30/year
estimate
Regular annual subscription price; host believes many subscribers pay less via promotions14:12
Launch Center Prosharemost of 2022 revenue
approximate
Share of revenue from renewals while the product was not actively developed or marketed55:58