GTM Sauce

BlueThrone · B2C · app acquirer

Stack category downloads over time to see if new apps grow the market

Screen time market grew with each new entrant; buying a non-leader looked OK

Unknownmarket-selection

What they did

In Sensor Tower, stack downloads (and revenue) by app over time for a category. If each new entrant grows the total rather than taking share from the leader, there are untapped users, so a non-leader can still be worth buying.

What happened

For screen time apps, every new entrant grew total downloads and revenue without taking share from Opal.

In their words

Buying vs. Building: Scaling Beyond a Single App — Josh Peleg, BlueThrone

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David Barnard… so that even if there are 100 apps doing similar things, if you can buy the category leader, they're going to continue to thrive irregardless of what the competition is. But based on Blue Throne 2.0's positioning, you wouldn't want to buy one of the 100 other apps to go compete with Opal. And you've probably looked at some of them because they're so clearly breaking away from the crowd as the category leader. Is that how you think about this?

Josh PelegSo, you're a bit unlucky here because I actually did analysis on this the other week, so I'm going to hit you with some data here. Screen time is a really great category, because if you go on Sensor Tower and you do a cross section of downloads over time and you stack them, there's a great viewing way of doing this on Sensor Tower, you can see that not only is the category growing over time, which is great, ever since Apple allowed you to use the API to build these apps, but what you can see is that if you cross section it by downloads, every time a new app enters the market, the whole market grows. And to me, as an investor or a buyer, this tells me there are users that the market leader has not tapped into yet, that if a new entrant comes in and has a different value proposition or branding or appeal, they can actually capture those users. So, that's really interesting.

Josh PelegAnd the same thing happens with the revenue. If you cross section this category by revenue, you'll also see that every time a new company pops in, and there's been one from YC and a couple of others, they're able to capture market share without taking it from Opal, even though Opal is clearly the category leader. So, in this niche in particular, I would feel okay with buying something that isn't a category leader because I think there's space for …

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Tags: category-analysis, competition