GTM Sauce

BoldVoice · B2C · accent coaching app

Judge paywall tests on revenue after refunds, waiting 3+ weeks past trial start

Caught two trial-start 'wins' that lost money once refunds came in

Workedexperimentationpaywall

What they did

Primary experiment metric is net revenue after refunds per exposed user on a matured cohort, not trial-start rate or initial conversion. Also check failed payments. Maturation window: from trial start, allow the 7-day trial plus an extra week to convert, then at least two more weeks for refunds, since users ask for refunds after they see the charge hit their bank account. Accept slower iteration as the cost.

What happened

Revealed that hard-paywall and no-exit-discount variants that lifted trial starts had refund spikes larger than the gain; says they have not had to reverse an implemented decision.
Stage
growth
“it's net revenue after refunds per exposed user. And then here's the kicker on a matured cohort.”
David Barnard
“So you have to think about, "Okay, trials start on this date, give it an extra week for them to convert, give it at least two extra weeks for the dust to settle from refunds."”
Anada Lakra

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