Shot Pattern · B2C · golf strategy and GPS app
Compare your conversion rates with RevenueCat's benchmarks before you accept an acquisition offer
99th-percentile trial rates; turned down $75K and netted ~$100K the next summer
Workedexit-maanalytics-attribution
What they did
When a company offered to buy the app at ~$2K lifetime revenue and asked for a deck of tech stack and user metrics, the founder (finance background) saw that a multiple of revenue or profit would give a tiny valuation. He pulled the RevenueCat State of Subscription Apps benchmarks and compared his RevenueCat numbers: trial start rate and trial conversion rate were both 99th percentile, download-to-paid also very high. He concluded the small dollar amounts hid a strongly converting funnel and declined the $75K offer, despite the buyer threatening to build the feature themselves.
What happened
Declined $75K; the buyer never built the features; the following summer of paid ads netted ~$100K
- Stage
- Growth (early growth)
“I go to the report, I look at the benchmarks, I look at my numbers in RevenueCat, and I'm like, trial start rate, 99th percentile. Trial conversion rate, 99th percentile.”
“Um, and so eventually, I said no uh to the 75k.”
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More from Shot Pattern
All 33 Shot Pattern tactics- Pay golf creators $750-$1,500 per video and run the videos as adsCreator ads were not the winner at first; still used as ongoing ad content
- Make a quick screen recording of the app with auto captions and run it as an ad$0.70 installs vs $3.50-4 revenue per download; drove 2024 to ~$185K
- Build an app for something golfers already do by handEarly trials and paying strangers with little effort, unlike the first app
- Post helpful golf tips on X with app screenshots, starting before launchA few trial starts after each helpful post; slow steady growth
- Pay $5,000 for golf course data, then dig through it for new featuresFound data for a new expected-value feature that went viral
- Tweet a teaser of a feature you are still building25-40K impressions from ~1,000 followers; influencer calls and a buyout offer
More from this episode
- Shot Pattern: Launch in weeks with just two features no competitor offers$1,000 revenue by the end of the first June; users asked for more
- Shot Pattern: Join conversations on X where your audience already talks and mention your appOnly channel in the first months; drove the first $1,000
- Shot Pattern: Post a teaser of a feature you're halfway through buildingFirst viral tweet; reached a pro who won a tournament and led to a $75K offer
- Shot Pattern: Raise your yearly price to about $75 so paid ads can pay offFounder says it set up profitable paid ads; no before/after numbers
- Shot Pattern: Start paid ads only once your trial and paid conversion rates are strongAds worked from the start because the funnel already converted
- Shot Pattern: Run Meta install ads with at least three videos and about $300 a day$1.57 per install (under $1 early); $1 spent returned ~$4
- Shot Pattern: Run a quick screen recording of your app with your own voiceover as an adGot 80-90% of spend and beat both creator ads; $1.57 per install
- Shot Pattern: Use an interest-free credit card to keep profitable ads running until Apple pays you~$100K net income in one summer push
- Shot Pattern: Clip a demo of your newest feature into an ad that looks unlike other adsAds reached 1.8M and 1.3M paid views at $500/day; main performance channel
- Shot Pattern: Pay a popular creator's tournament entry in exchange for an ad about your appMeta barely served it; lost to a lo-fi founder video
- Shot Pattern: Run static image ads on MetaDidn't go anywhere; switched to video
- Shot Pattern: Pay a YouTuber who already uses your app to work it into videosFounder says these channels help together; no numbers
- Shot Pattern: Cut your paywall down to almost no wordsTrial starts rose each round, but trial conversion and LTV fell
- Shot Pattern: Fill your paywall with a long feature list so buyers see a great deal12% fewer trial starts (21% to 18%) but significantly more revenue
- Shot Pattern: Copy the usual onboarding screens: social proof, permissions, setup questionsEach screen lost users; lowest install-to-sign-up rate ever
- Shot Pattern: Make onboarding an interactive tutorial where people try the appSign-ups up 8%, trial starts up 19%
- Shot Pattern: Cut the onboarding step where the most people quitSign-ups 70% to 74%; no significant change in trials after 9,000 users
- Shot Pattern: Hire a contractor from your industry to run paywall and onboarding testsStarted regular experiments; mixed results, including some wins
- Shot Pattern: Build for advanced users and let casual users walk away
- Shot Pattern: Grow through App Store search in a category old, rich apps dominateHasn't worked; competitors too entrenched and few target users search
- Sell a mental-skills app to high school athletesYears of near-zero sales; teens didn't see the problem or pay